[Weekly Brief] Jan 2026 - W4: The Pendulum Swings

Despite the sudden breakdown in Bitcoin price (-5.20%) this week, the market exhibited a peculiar behavior: Volatility remained suppressed. Typically, a sharp drop triggers a spike in Implied Volatility (IV). However, the market absorbed the sell-off with remarkable calm, keeping premiums stable. Our system capitalized on this anomaly, defending the PnL through the newly deployed 'Pendulum Strategy'.

Performance Summary

• Period: Jan 17, 2026 (Sat) ~ Jan 23, 2026 (Fri)
• Duration: 7 Days
• OKX Return (Left): -3.27%
• Bybit Return (Right): -1.66%
• Total Portfolio Return: -2.97% (vs BTC -5.20%)
• Weekly Alpha (vs BTC spot): +2.22%
• Cumulative Duration: 56 Days (Since Nov 29, 2025)
• Cumulative Return: +10.24% (vs BTC -2.81%)
• Cumulative Alpha: +13.05% (vs BTC spot)

Alpha Analysis

• Bitcoin prices fell from $94k to $89k (-5.20%), yet the volatility actually decreased slightly (36.8% → 35.8%). This "Low Volatility Drop" environment presents a unique challenge for risk models.
• However, our system successfully navigated this regime by maintaining algorithmic discipline and filtering out directional noise, ensuring steady performance without succumbing to market fluctuations.

Market Context: "Price Drop without the Panic"

• Spot-Vol Correlation (+0.007): The 1-week correlation is effectively zero. This indicates a complete decoupling of price action and volatility.
• Implication: The market is sliding downwards rather than crashing. The absence of a volatility spike suggests that the decline is driven by structural flows rather than fear.

The Process

• Strategic Deployment: We officially activated 'The Pendulum Strategy'. This logic allows the portfolio to synchronize with the market's natural rhythm. Instead of rigidly opposing volatility, the system fluidly adapts its stance, effectively riding the waves of price action to maintain equilibrium.
• Infrastructure Upgrade: We implemented a Real-time UI via SSH Tunneling. This allows for secure, low-latency monitoring of our algorithm's heartbeat directly from the core execution server, eliminating the lag inherent in web-based dashboards.

About the Report

1. Philosophy: Gauss Technology does not rely on directional prediction or speculation. We focus strictly on monetizing market inefficiencies and structural volatility.
2. Instruments: BTC spot, perpetual, and options on Major Crypto Exchanges (OKX, Bybit).
3. Data Standards: All performance metrics represent Net Realized PnL, calculated after deducting all fees and slippage. The PnL charts displayed are actual screenshots taken directly from the exchange apps. Please note the time basis for daily snapshots varies by exchange: OKX data is recorded at UTC 08:00, and Bybit data at UTC 00:00.
   1. Note: Bybit's display of 'BTC Change %' typically lags or shows discrepancies compared to the global index. We recommend referencing OKX price data or standard market indices for accurate spot performance.
4. Membership: This public report displays percentage returns only. Absolute pnl ($) and detailed execution analysis will be available exclusively in the upcoming Partner Tier.
5. Evolution with AI: Decisions are driven by Human-AI collaboration. Therefore, as AI advance, Gauss Technology’s capabilities grow stronger.
6. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.